Friday, July 4, 2014

Prediction: Eugenie Bouchard will beat Petra Kvitova to win Wimbledon title

Eugenie Bouchard

After converting her sixth match point in Thursday’s Wimbledon semifinal, Eugenie Bouchard gave a small fist pump and flashed a so-quick-you-could-miss-it smile. It was hardly the reaction expected from a 20-year-old whose meteoric rise over the past year will culminate with her first Grand Slam final on Saturday.
 

But why celebrate an inevitability? Bouchard expected to be in this spot. Just because we’re surprised doesn’t mean she needs to be.

 
Not that Bouchard making the final is a stunner. Frankly, it feels like a natural progression of a run that started with her semifinal berth at the Australian Open and a follow-up semifinal at the French Open. But go back 12 months. Was there anyone who expected the best player at the 2014 Grand Slams to be the young Canadian player who was just starting to breakthrough on the WTA? 

It wasn’t so long ago that Bouchard was just another junior star trying to transition to the professional ranks. As recently as 14 months ago, she hadn’t played in the main draw of a Grand Slam. She was ranked No. 66 at last year’s Wimbledon. She won the junior title at the All England Club in 2012, but that’s hardly a barometer of professional success. (Only four of the past 25 girls’ winners have gone on to play in a Grand Slam final.) How did she go from a promising prospect to a potential Grand Slam champion in 12 months?


Bouchard plays an aggressive style. She takes the ball early and create angles that force her opponents into playing defensively. Her serve is solid and her groundstrokes are precise. But the thing you hear about most often is her tenacity and fight, the intangibles that prove so important in a one-on-one battle such as tennis. She believes that she will win. She doesn’t buckle under pressure. Even when Bouchard was noticeably tight while trying to close out the match, she calmed herself enough to hold the first time the match was on her racket. 

She’s not the favorite in Saturday’s final. Petra Kvitova, the 2011 Wimbledon champion, gets the nod from oddsmakers and prognosticators. Kvitova is a slight 4/5 favorite to win, while Bouchard is listed at 5/4. All three ESPN panelists tipped Kvitova too, though Chris Evert, who served as the color commentator for Bouchard’s semifinal, likes the young Canadian to get the win.
 
Petra Kvitova.
Evert should like Bouchard. Though their games differ, they possess the same icy on-court demeanor. She’s cool enough to focus on the present and not be bothered by things out of her control. (After a spectator fell ill during the first-set tiebreak, Bouchard recovered from the five-minute break better than Halep.) Bouchard famously said during the French Open that she isn’t friends with Maria Sharapova. Why should she be? You might feel compelled to take mercy on your friends. 

When Kvitova is at her best, she’s tough to beat on grass. Now that the pressure is back on her for the first time this tournament, she may feel the tension that hung over her since her breakout win in 2011. But it’s Kvitova who’s the experienced player in Saturday’s final. She’s the former champion. It’s her match to lose. 

That also means it’s Eugenie Bouchard’s to win. Unless those final-game jitters were a sign of things to come, expect the young Canadian to play with poise and rattle Kvitova by controlling points early. The pick is Bouchard in straight sets. 

Earlier this week, Bouchard told ESPN’s Chris McKendry that her ultimate goal was to win a Grand Slam title. Come Saturday afternoon, she may need a new one.
 
Bouchard kisses the girl’s singles trophy at Wimbledon in 2012

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